July 2024

The Art of War: The Power of Three

As events in the Indo-Pacific region continue to deteriorate, comes news that the US, Japan and South Korea have signed a mutual defense pact that promises to assist one another should any or all of the three nations come under attack. Over the last few years, Russia, the PRC and North Korea have provided increasing cooperation with one another with North Korea even providing munitions to Russia in return for certain technological developments. Defense analysts also point to the PRC for continuing to not only provide encouragement to Russia in their war with Ukraine but certain types of “unnamed” assistance ranging from humanitarian aid to weaponry.

For years, the US has attempted to bring both South Korea and Japan to the bargaining table, pointing to near-term threats in the region as a means of putting aside past differences. These differences go back to World War II, when Japan brutalized South Korea in their campaign to seize the entire Pacific Rim, going so far as to use South Korean civilians as “comfort women” to pacify Japanese soldiers returning from battle. Admittedly its difficult to look beyond war crimes such as these and act as if nothing of consequence occurred over eighty years ago. However, recent moves in and around the region by a belligerent PRC, a nuclear-armed North Korea and aggressive Russia has convinced many that it was time for both countries to take stock of the current situation and take steps to counter these threats should events continue to head south. Other pacts are almost certain to occur, as the US has sought to bring in other nations to defend the Indo-Pacific region should war break out.

The US also acknowledge that they will be upgrading their forces in and around Japan, to both modernize their land, sea and air assets and work in closer cooperation with other allied nations.

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The Art of War: RIMPAC

Lately, we’ve made a lot of hay regarding the recently conducted and now concluded RIMPAC wargaming exercise that was held off of the Hawaiian shores in early July. While it was important to coordinate and demonstrate the joint capabilities and interoperability of 29 partner nations that were led by the US, it was equally vital to test out some of the latest platforms and munitions starting to come online. New stand-off munitions such as the AIM-174b are designed to fight the enemy from afar, keeping our ships and bases out of harm’s way from enemy weapons and subsurface platforms. Other newly deployed weaponry, including the MQ-9B SeaGuardian drone, represent our latest eyes in the sky over a huge battlespace, capable of gathering intelligence, dropping sonobuoys to determine the enemy’s whereabouts, and even engage enemy targets with a package of Joint Strike missiles.

We’ve already discussed the Manta Ray remotely operated submersible in a previous post and other newly developed weapons. These include the LRASM (Long Range Anti-Ship Missile), which boast extended range ship-killing capabilities, again designed to be fired from distant stand-off positions to keep our forces out of harm’s way while bringing the battle to the adversary in their own home waters.

If the PRC intends to carry out its threat of seizing Taiwan by force by the year 2027, then the US and its allies will certainly be ready to face them. While Allied forces will enter the fray clear-eyed and ready to accept tangible losses to meet its mission requirements, it is the enemy that will undoubtedly be bloodied by the latest technological advancements being tested and readied for battle.

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Hobby Master Orders “Dagger Attack”

Each month Hobby Master trots out the latest flock of models collectors can expect to lay their mitts on later that year. As part of their March 2025 launch calendar, two warbirds caught our eye: one based upon the F-14 Tomcat portrayed in the feature film Top Gun Maverick as well as a F/A-18E Super Hornet meant to depict one of the four US Navy aircraft used to attack a heavily-protected uranium enrichment facility buried deep inside a supposed enemy country. Needless to say, the model maker took precautions to depict both aircraft in a somewhat nebulous form, never actually showing either aircraft as they appeared in the film to avoid any legal entanglements with Paramount, the producer of the film. So, its up to the collector to either display the model straight out-of-the-box as is or, if they so choose, perform what is known in the hobby as a “Code 3”, meaning they can obtain and apply decals from other sources to finalize the look of each model.

Lots of other models were shown in the monthly leaflet, including a U-2S spyplane and an all-new experimental F-35C donned in a black chrome reflective coating. We invite you to take a look at the latest models likely headed to showcases around the world this coming March.

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The Forces of Valor Update: August

At the risk of sounding like a Pollyanna, it appears as if Waltersons will finally be receiving a shipment of re-stock merchandise by the middle of August. Many of their 1:32 scale tanks and trucks will be returning to the fold, along with a number of 1:700 scale warships. Interestingly, their 1:72 scale MH-47G Chinook is making an encore appearance, having been sold out for a couple of years now.

Apart from their twin 1:700 scale renditions of the HMS Invincible, there doesn’t appear to be anything new in this shipment so its your guess as good as ours as to when the balance of their long-promised new items will show up on our shores. We’ve learned our lesson and not going to speculate about their arrival date, so please bear this in mind if you have your heart and mind set on any of the new items that still appear on their web sites.

We’ll be placing a fairly large order for all of their re-stock merchandise to ensure that they remain in stock for at least through the Labor Day weekend. Mind you we’ll also keep our fingers crossed that they’re still available at the distributor should we need to place a follow-up order. Whether or not they will still be available for the holiday season is up to the manufacturer as demand remains strong even for some of their older items. Its a good problem to have but one they need to fully address going forward.

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Hobby Master Sets its Sights on the Lower and Upper Atmosphere

Not to be outdone by some of the other recent product announcements hitting the air waves, Hobby Master indicated they had plans to pursue a brand new category that, quite frankly, caught many by surprise – 1:8 scale polyresin figures. Two figures were shown off for the first time earlier today: one a statue of a U-2 “Dragon Lady” spyplane pilot while the second pays tribute to none other than Neil Armstrong, the Commander of the Apollo 11 mission, who subsequently became the first man to set foot on the surface of the moon back on July 20th, 1969. Currently, its not clear if either figure will come with separate points of articulation or are simply designed to maintain a simple pose.

The Armstrong figure comes bundled with a replica of the US flag that was planted atop the surface of the moon and what we assume is a soil sampler. The U-2 pilot comes with a portable air conditioning unit and looks to be posed atop a section of runway. Both figures stand atop attractively designed display bases that feature the name of the figure etched along its lower edge. Each figurine carries a price tag of $149.99 and both are expected some time in March.

With two figures announced right out of the box, so-to-speak, its clear Hobby Master has “high hopes” for the category and will no doubt have other figures waiting in the “wings.” Okay, I’ll stop now…

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Anatomy of War: Down to the Sea in Subs

Recently, The Infographics Show posted a slick animated video to YouTube that highights one of the latest ways the US Navy plans on dealing with a larger adversarial fleet in a near-term conflagration. The Manta Ray submersible is an Unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV), also known as an un-crewed underwater vehicle or underwater drone, that is a submersible vehicle which can operate underwater without a human occupant. These vehicles may be further divided into two sub categories: Remotely Operated Underwater Vehicles (ROUVs) and Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs). ROUVs are remotely controlled by a human operator. AUVs, on the other hand, are automated and operate independently of direct human input.

The Manta Ray, which is an example of a Remotely Operated Underwater Vehicle (ROUV), is a sub class of UUVs with the primary purpose of replacing humans for underwater tasks due to difficult underwater conditions. ROUVs are designed to perform educational, industrial or military missions. They are manually controlled by an off-site operator to perform tasks that include surveillance and patrolling. The structure of ROUVs disqualify it from being able to operate autonomously. In addition to a camera, actuators, and sensors, ROUVs often include a “gripper” or something to grasp objects with. This may throw off the weight distribution of the vehicle, requiring manual assistance at all times. Sometimes ROUVs require additional assistance due to the importance of the task being performed. For instance, the US Navy developed a Submarine Rescue Diving Recompression System (SRDRS) that can save up to 16 people up to 2000 feet underwater at a time. Such a large vehicle with the primary role of saving lives requires an operator(s) to be present during its mission.

Produced by Northrop Grumman as part of a US Navy project to develop long-range underwater weapons, Manta Ray is a sophisticated underwater drone capable of hibernating on the sea floor for “very long periods” without refueling. In May 2024, Northrop Grumman unveiled the submersible, which was developed for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). Modeled after an actual oceanic creature, the drone underwent four years of development to mimic the movements of a real Manta Ray. The product is engineered for extended-duration and long-range military operations with minimal human intervention. Additionally, it features the capability to harness energy from the ocean. Manta Ray successfully completed full-scale at-sea trials off the coast of Southern California in February and March 2024. According to DARPA, Manta Ray demonstrates a first-of-its-kind capability for an extra-large UUV due to its “cross-country modular transportation, in-field assembly, and subsequent deployment.”

That being said, if you think all of this futuristic stuff lies in the realm of the fanciful instead of the real world, I would suggest you think again. Last month, the New York Post both obtained and posted an overhead photograph of the Manta Ray docked at Port Hueneme naval base in California. Clearly the Manta Ray has already reached operational status. Its likely that it will be painted either a dark blue or black to further conceal its whereabouts particularly if it needs to surface for repair or conduct communications with its remote operator.

While the recently conducted RIMPAC exercises held off the shores of Hawaii made no mention of either the testing or integration of the vessel in its massive multi-day wargaming scenario, its a good bet that it was quietly undergoing sea trials along with other UUVs that are designed to bring parity between the smaller US-led naval forces and those of the Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).

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Product Spotlight: To the Stars and Beyond

The ASM-135 ASAT is an air-launched anti-satellite multistage missile that was developed by Ling-Temco-Vought’s LTV Aerospace division. The ASM-135 was carried exclusively by United States Air Force (USAF) F-15 Eagle fighter aircraft.

On December 21st, 1982, an F-15A was used to perform the first captive carry ASM-135 test flight from the Air Force Flight Test Center, Edwards AFB, California in the United States.

On August 20th, 1985, President Reagan authorized a test against a satellite. The test was delayed to provide notice to the United States Congress. The target was the Solwind P78-1, an orbiting solar observatory that was launched on February 24th, 1979.

On September 13th, 1985, Maj. Wilbert D. “Doug” Pearson, flying the “Celestial Eagle” F-15A 76-0084 launched an ASM-135 ASAT about 320 kilometres (200 mi) west of Vandenberg Air Force Base and destroyed the Solwind P78-1 satellite flying at an altitude of 555 kilometres (345 mi). Prior to the launch, the F-15 – flying at Mach 1.22 – executed a 3.8 g0 (37 m/s2) zoom climb at an angle of 65 degrees. The ASM-135 ASAT was automatically launched at 11,600 metres (38,100 ft) while the F-15 was flying at Mach 0.934 (992.2 km/h; 616.5 mph). The 14 kilograms (30 lb) MHV collided with the 910 kilograms (2,000 lb) Solwind P78-1 satellite at closing velocity of 24,000 kilometres per hour (15,000 mph; 6.7 km/s).

NASA learned of U.S. Air Force plans for the Solwind ASAT test in July 1985. NASA modeled the effects of the test. This model determined that debris produced would still be in orbit in the 1990s. It would force NASA to enhance debris shielding for its planned space station.

Earlier the U.S. Air Force and NASA had worked together to develop a Scout-launched target vehicle for ASAT experiments. NASA advised the U.S. Air Force on how to conduct the ASAT test to avoid producing long-lived debris. However, congressional restrictions on ASAT tests intervened.

In order to complete an ASAT test before an expected Congressional ban took effect (as it did in October 1985), the DoD chose to use the existing Solwind astrophysics satellite as a target.

NASA worked with the DoD to monitor the effects of the tests using two orbital debris telescopes and a reentry radar deployed to Alaska.

NASA assumed the torn metal would be bright. Surprisingly, the Solwind pieces turned out to appear so dark as to be almost undetectable. Only two pieces were seen. NASA Scientists theorized that the unexpected Solwind darkening was due to carbonization of organic compounds in the target satellite; that is, when the kinetic energy of the projectile became heat energy on impact, the plastics inside Solwind vaporized and condensed on the metal pieces as soot.

NASA used U.S. Air Force infrared telescopes to show that the pieces were warm with heat absorbed from the Sun. This added weight to the contention that they were dark with soot and not reflective. The pieces decayed quickly from orbit, implying a large area-to-mass ratio. According to NASA, as of January 1998, 8 of 285 trackable pieces remained in orbit. The last piece of debris, COSPAR 1979-017GX, SATCAT 16564, deorbited May 9th, 2004, according to SATCAT.

Look for Hobby Master’s rendition of the Celestial Eagle sometime in October.

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Panzerkampf Continues to Brush Up on its Russian

No stranger to Russian armament, Panzerkampf recently announced plans to offer an additional three VPK-7829 Bumerang K17 Amphibious Infantry Fighting Vehicles to their growing arsenal of 1:72 scale military vehicles. Intriguingly, all three feature dust-covered road wheels thereby giving them a more weathered appearance. Its not clear if this will become a trend for this prolific manufacturer or simply a test to see if collectors prefer the look to the more traditional factory fresh motif. No release dates were listed so we are assuming they’ll be out-and-about for the holiday shopping season.

Previously the Company had released a standard fare woodlands scheme K17 earlier this year and we were awaiting word on the release of their Moscow Victory Day parade version that we thought would roll off the assembly line at the same time. So, in effect, we are now awaiting four K17s to hit the market, bringing the combined K16/K17 total to seven. That’s pretty impressive even though we doubt the vehicle has actually been embroiled in a conflict as yet.

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Anatomy of War: The Abrams Gets a Bigger Gun

Defense News has obtained images of what they refer to as the M1 Thumper — essentially an upgunned version of the M1 Abrams main battle tank. This new variant features a huge 140mm gun embedded in an enlarged turret as well as a supposed autoloader to handle the over-sized munitions. Its not clear if the US Army will give this ubiquitous version of the Abrams the go-ahead for full production and how effective the new gun is against some of the latest tanks being fielded by other adversarial nations.

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Anatomy of War: “Mess with Us at Your Peril”

Sixty Minutes Australia recently aired a lengthy episode focused on a potential war between the PRC and 29 western nations in the Indo-Pacific region. Based upon a recent military exercise known as RIMPAC which took place off of the Hawaiian shores, the massive wargame, which encompasses air, ground and sea power, is not only designed to ensure that our forces work in concert with one another should war break out but is also meant to send a signal to our potential adversaries that we are ready should a conflict brew up. Needless to say, the most obvious target of a war would be Taiwan, since the PRC has expressly said that it wants to return the island nation to the fold of mainland China some time within the next decade. That said, there are other regions that could come into play should a conflict erupt, among them South Korea, Japan and even The Philippines.

Recently, the Wall Street Journal went so far as to postulate how a conflict would likely take place given what they know about the two sides military preparedness. And, as recently as May, Chinese general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and chairman of the Central Military Commission, Xi Jinping, said that the PRC must be ready to take the island, by force if necessary, no later than 2027. We invite you to spend a few minutes and watch the accompanying video and bone up on what could come should diplomacy fail.

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