With the recent imposition of a 10% tariff on goods coming from China, it remains to be seen how both manufacturers and distributors decide to pass along these cost increases to the trade as well as the consumer in both the near- and long-term. In my opinion, most will take a wait and see attitude over the next few weeks to see if these tariffs will either be rolled back or remain in place based upon China’s reaction. Bear in mind, its entirely possible that not only will the tariffs remain in place but they could increase further should the Administration feel it necessary to raise the stakes even higher if China doesn’t get the subtle message or decides to retaliate in kind. During his presidential campaign, Trump had threatened a 60% tariff so now that he’s in office anything and everything is on the table. Presently, its not clear if certain manufacturers — among them Hobby Master, Panzerkampf and a few others — will be affected by the tariff and whether or not companies operating outside China will pick up sales by being located outside the PRC.
Its entirely possibly that the new Administration will up the stakes even further by placing an across-the-board tariff on every country that currently does business with the US, all in an effort to demonstrate to the world that we mean business when it comes to concessions. Over the weekend, both Canada and Mexico, our nearest neighbors and close allies, saw a 25% tariff imposed upon them, so it isn’t a stretch that even more allies will get the same treatment should Trump feel its within his rights to push the bounds even further.
So, as we start 2025, things aren’t looking especially great in the commercial space unless something substantial occurs by one or both parties. Geo-political events being what they are, it could be a situation where one side is waiting for the other to blink before they can formulate a response to the US initiatives. It isn’t a pretty scenario and one that will undoubtedly lead to a scarcity of product and higher prices for what does come into the country.