Anatomy of War

The Art of War: The Angels of Sodom

While the US Air Force has temporarily put the kabash on its NGAD (Next Generation Air Dominance) program due largely to escalating costs and its exploration of potential alternatives, it appears as if the PRC has forged ahead and revealed not one but two new sixth generation fighter aircraft currently in development. The War Zone has posted grainy images of a crewed tailless fighter that boasts rounded-edge characteristics typical of a stealthy design, what could be a tandem pilot seating configuration as well as internal storage bays. The Chengdu J-36 as its being called, could be more of a strike aircraft than a true air dominance fighter, designed to attack long distance targets such as Guam or at-sea naval assets.

Speculation has it that this new build boasts not two but three power plants, suggesting it is being designed with long-range capabilities in mind and the ability to return to its point of origin should one or even two engines fail mid flight. Some have even postulated that a tri-engine configuration is being incorporated into the air frame for power generation should the manufacturer field an energy-based weapon. Energy-based weapons such as lasers would require a huge amount of power to fire at short-range targets if a dogfight ensued. While this conclusion has merit, its not clear if the Chinese have advanced to the point where they can successfully incorporate an energy-based weapon on board a relatively smallish airborne platform such as a sixth generation aircraft.

Meanwhile, a slightly smaller second jet, currently being designated as the Shenyang J-50, has been spotted flying over a different test facility that may be a true air dominance fighter planned to operate much closer to shore and with less stores. As the War Zone reports, “According to unconfirmed accounts, the second combat aircraft design is from the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC), while the first, larger design is from the rival Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC).”

Neither aircraft has an official designation as yet much less a NATO reporting name, largely because they have both been revealed to the public and defense officials in a rather surprising fashion. Needless to say both will be studied by think tanks and defense analysts around the world to determine their ultimate capabilities relative to current front line aircraft. And, as you might expect, the Internet is abuzz with speculation, so it remains to be seen what the Pentagon makes of these stunning developments and how they could impact a shooting war over the Straits of Taiwan.

It remains to be seen how far along both aircraft have progressed during their testing phases, any changes that may need to be incorporated into the prototype aircraft to overcome any perceived deficiencies and when the PRC feels it can push them along into the production phase whether or not they are completely ready for combat operations. The PRC has stated categorically that it plans to take back Taiwan by no later than 2027, by force if necessary, so these two new aircraft could play a pivotal role in the conduct of air-to-air combat operations over the island nation.

Back in late November, the National Interest published an intriguing article on the so-called “White Emperor” (Baidi), a supposed sixth generation fighter that was unveiled at the Zhuhai Airshow, developed by state-owned AVIC. While not fully functional, the sleek-looking mock up was characterized as an integrated space-air fighter, reportedly designed to feature supersonic capabilities that enable it to break through the Earth’s atmosphere for space operation. The National Interest went on to state that “China’s sixth-generation fighter was allegedly developed as a platform that optimizes stealth, combat agility, and fast speeds. While detailed specs and capabilities remain highly classified, published images and video footage of the jet showcase sleek, angular designs that emphasize stealth. Specifically, the cockpit canopy features a dark, multi-faceted design which will likely help minimize the aircraft’s reflective signatures.”

When taken in the aggregate, this means that three sixth generation aircraft are currently being developed by mainland China – two tailless and a third boasting a splayed vertical stabilizer configuration – all with the purpose of taking the PLAAF well beyond its current capabilities should a confrontation with the West occur in the not-too-distant future. Personally, I find it curious that the PRC would decide to trot out both of the latest aircraft during daytime hours for all the world to see and on the birth date of former premier, Mao Tse Tung, thereby giving the roll out added significance. That said, it remains to be seen if all three aircraft live up to their billing and whether or not the Chinese can build them in sufficient numbers that would have a telling effect in a shooting war.

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The Art of War: The Fujian Aircraft Carrier

Its no secret that China has sought to bring the island-nation of Taiwan to heel and eventually back into the fold of the Communist-led mainland. The crisis began way back in 1949 when then ruler Chang Kai-Shek and his Nationalist Army were forced to flee the mainland by the pursuing Chinese Communist Army once they realized that they could no longer defeat the Communist forces under the control of Mao Tse-Tung.

The situation remained in stasis for the past 75 years largely because the Communists weren’t strong enough to attempt a forcible invasion of Taiwan. Over the last few years, however, as the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has continued to gain strength through an unprecedented build up of both its sub-surface and surface assets, the Chinese have gone on record to indicate that it will take back the island, by force if necessary. With this goal in mind, they have gone so far as to acquire a former Soviet-built aircraft carrier from Ukraine in 2012, all in an effort to learn the basics of naval aviation. Since then, the PLAN has steadily developed its own nascent force of home-grown aircraft carriers, first by funding, building and launching the Shandong class of steam-driven carriers and now a more sophisticated class of carriers, capable of launching aircraft through a cutting edge Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS), and known simply as the Fujian.

Recently, two YouTube analysts took up the issue of the soon-to-be-deployed Fujian and how it both compares and contrasts with the more robust Gerald R. Ford class of aircraft carriers the US has been building and launching over the last few years. The results of their analysis are sobering, even for the most ardent critics, who have repeatedly warned the West of the growing influence the PLAN has been exerting in the Western Pacific. While both analyses are lengthy, we invite you to watch the accompanying videos to form your own impression of what we could be up against should a shooting war erupt in the not-too-distant future.

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Anatomy of War: Down to the Sea in Subs

Recently, The Infographics Show posted a slick animated video to YouTube that highights one of the latest ways the US Navy plans on dealing with a larger adversarial fleet in a near-term conflagration. The Manta Ray submersible is an Unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV), also known as an un-crewed underwater vehicle or underwater drone, that is a submersible vehicle which can operate underwater without a human occupant. These vehicles may be further divided into two sub categories: Remotely Operated Underwater Vehicles (ROUVs) and Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs). ROUVs are remotely controlled by a human operator. AUVs, on the other hand, are automated and operate independently of direct human input.

The Manta Ray, which is an example of a Remotely Operated Underwater Vehicle (ROUV), is a sub class of UUVs with the primary purpose of replacing humans for underwater tasks due to difficult underwater conditions. ROUVs are designed to perform educational, industrial or military missions. They are manually controlled by an off-site operator to perform tasks that include surveillance and patrolling. The structure of ROUVs disqualify it from being able to operate autonomously. In addition to a camera, actuators, and sensors, ROUVs often include a “gripper” or something to grasp objects with. This may throw off the weight distribution of the vehicle, requiring manual assistance at all times. Sometimes ROUVs require additional assistance due to the importance of the task being performed. For instance, the US Navy developed a Submarine Rescue Diving Recompression System (SRDRS) that can save up to 16 people up to 2000 feet underwater at a time. Such a large vehicle with the primary role of saving lives requires an operator(s) to be present during its mission.

Produced by Northrop Grumman as part of a US Navy project to develop long-range underwater weapons, Manta Ray is a sophisticated underwater drone capable of hibernating on the sea floor for “very long periods” without refueling. In May 2024, Northrop Grumman unveiled the submersible, which was developed for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). Modeled after an actual oceanic creature, the drone underwent four years of development to mimic the movements of a real Manta Ray. The product is engineered for extended-duration and long-range military operations with minimal human intervention. Additionally, it features the capability to harness energy from the ocean. Manta Ray successfully completed full-scale at-sea trials off the coast of Southern California in February and March 2024. According to DARPA, Manta Ray demonstrates a first-of-its-kind capability for an extra-large UUV due to its “cross-country modular transportation, in-field assembly, and subsequent deployment.”

That being said, if you think all of this futuristic stuff lies in the realm of the fanciful instead of the real world, I would suggest you think again. Last month, the New York Post both obtained and posted an overhead photograph of the Manta Ray docked at Port Hueneme naval base in California. Clearly the Manta Ray has already reached operational status. Its likely that it will be painted either a dark blue or black to further conceal its whereabouts particularly if it needs to surface for repair or conduct communications with its remote operator.

While the recently conducted RIMPAC exercises held off the shores of Hawaii made no mention of either the testing or integration of the vessel in its massive multi-day wargaming scenario, its a good bet that it was quietly undergoing sea trials along with other UUVs that are designed to bring parity between the smaller US-led naval forces and those of the Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).

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Anatomy of War: The Abrams Gets a Bigger Gun

Defense News has obtained images of what they refer to as the M1 Thumper — essentially an upgunned version of the M1 Abrams main battle tank. This new variant features a huge 140mm gun embedded in an enlarged turret as well as a supposed autoloader to handle the over-sized munitions. Its not clear if the US Army will give this ubiquitous version of the Abrams the go-ahead for full production and how effective the new gun is against some of the latest tanks being fielded by other adversarial nations.

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Anatomy of War: “Mess with Us at Your Peril”

Sixty Minutes Australia recently aired a lengthy episode focused on a potential war between the PRC and 29 western nations in the Indo-Pacific region. Based upon a recent military exercise known as RIMPAC which took place off of the Hawaiian shores, the massive wargame, which encompasses air, ground and sea power, is not only designed to ensure that our forces work in concert with one another should war break out but is also meant to send a signal to our potential adversaries that we are ready should a conflict brew up. Needless to say, the most obvious target of a war would be Taiwan, since the PRC has expressly said that it wants to return the island nation to the fold of mainland China some time within the next decade. That said, there are other regions that could come into play should a conflict erupt, among them South Korea, Japan and even The Philippines.

Recently, the Wall Street Journal went so far as to postulate how a conflict would likely take place given what they know about the two sides military preparedness. And, as recently as May, Chinese general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and chairman of the Central Military Commission, Xi Jinping, said that the PRC must be ready to take the island, by force if necessary, no later than 2027. We invite you to spend a few minutes and watch the accompanying video and bone up on what could come should diplomacy fail.

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Anatomy of War: America, The Arsenal of Democracy

Perhaps because they are located off the beaten trail in Dubois, Wyoming, The National Museum of Military Vehicles has been increasing its awareness by steadily releasing a series of videos discussing US participation in the Second World War. Over the course of the last few weeks, we’ve covered several of their most recent discussions, posting videos that explain the evolution of US tank destroyers and light tanks, as well as a discussion on the development of the M26 Pershing tank. Earlier today the Museum added yet another video — this one detailing the lessons learned from our earliest defeats in both the PTO and ETO and how these translated into the meteoric rise in US arms production during World War II. We hope you get a better understanding of how the US proved to be instrumental in stopping then turning back the Axis powers once our military forces and defense production was ratcheted up to provide badly needed reinforcements across the globe.

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Anatomy of War: The Pershing

In the wake of their excellent series on both US light tanks and tank destroyers that saw service during WWII, comes news that the National Museum of Military Vehicles has produced yet another video — this one dealing with the Pershing heavy tank. The discussion traces the evolution of the so-called T-20 series of heavier tanks and why it took so long for it to enter combat towards the latter stages of the Second World War. Designed, in effect, to deal with some of the latest German tanks, and running contrary to US military doctrine of the time, the Pershing arrived just as US forces were entering Germany proper, only to be parceled out to a couple of US armored divisions. They proved successful nonetheless, and demonstrated why they were needed when most war planners had considered the war won and the Sherman a war winner.

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Anatomy of War: Base Building in the Pacific

In a growing sign of the times, and a demonstration to the Peoples Republic of China that the US is prepared to defend its interests in and around the Indo-Pacific region, the US Marine Corps has refurbished its airfield on Peleliu and begun flying aircraft in and out of the tiny island. Seized by the US Marines from the Japanese during their island hopping campaign in the Second World War, the Marine Corps had largely abandoned the island in recent years, preferring to locate its assets to other more robust island bases. However, with the PRC continuing to flex its muscles and repeatedly indicating they are prepared to take Taiwan by force, if necessary, should diplomacy fail, US war planners have upgraded and re-certified the so-called “Sledge” runway (named after Marine Corps veteran, Eugene Sledge), thus spreading out their forces across the Pacific should a surprise attack by the PRC take place. Along with this, the Marine Corps has been rapidly expanding and hardening their other Indo-Pacific bases, most notably on Guam, and introduce newer weapons platforms to bolster their force structure.

For more information, feel free to stop by Task and Purpose and review their latest analysis on the Indo-Pacific region.

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Anatomy of War: US Tank Destroyers of WWII

While perusing YouTube for some of the latest military-related videos, I came across this excellent narrative that provides a lengthy overview of how the US Army planned to grapple with Axis armor in both the ETO as well as the PTO. Prepared by the National Museum of Military Vehicles which is based in Dubois, Wyoming, the video describes the way in which the US Army created its nascent tank destroyer branch, covering everything from the earliest 37mm towed anti-tank gun to half-tracks to the larger and much more capable self-propelled tank destroyers. Each weapon is shown in detail, along with its main gun, projectiles, engine and armor. Since many of these weapons were provided to our allies, the narrator also explains why some of the vehicles had to be modified to conform to each nation’s armament. Enjoy!

And, if you’re interested in learning about the evolution of the US Army’s light tanks during the Second World War, the National Museum of Military Vehicles has published a similar treatment in the accompanying video.

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Anatomy of War: Turtles and Cope Cages

Admittedly, I haven’t been following the day-to-day coverage of the Russo-Ukrainian War as I should be, largely due to other previous commitments that take up most of my time. That said, I do try and review some of the news and videos that circulate online, all in an effort to see how they can be adapted to our business model.

Recently, I watched with curiosity some of the field modified vehicles both sides have been deploying in response to the latest anti-tank weaponry being tested and operated on the battlefield. The Russians, for instance have modified some of their older T-72 tanks with all sorts of added if strange-looking protection, which give these once proud main battle tanks a peculiar look. These “turtles”, as they are being called by some analysts, resemble small barns or quonset huts with a gun protruding out the front, which prevents the gun from rotating its turret a full 360 degrees and, for all intents and purposes, turning the tank into an assault gun.

On the other side of the ledger, some of the older US-built M1A1 Abrams tanks have been similarly “upgraded” by the Ukrainian army, all in an effort to protect them from top down drone attacks that have destroyed or disabled many a tank. As the accompanying videos demonstrate, both adaptations create problems for the crew to both enter and leave their vehicles, to say nothing of the loading of the vehicle’s main armament. While I have no comment regarding the effectiveness of this “hillbilly armor” that have been used in previous conflicts, I do wonder how new systems such as the M10 Booker and T-14 Armata can survive on the battlefield if they are already being outgunned by the latest anti-tank weaponry reaching the battlefield.

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